The goal of every player is to get high and regular game profits. For a serious tipster, there is another important thing: outplay the bookmaker. All these goals can be met by skillfully searching and betting on value bets. To do that, you need to know what a value bet is, and how to correctly calculate its value. The value bet happens when the price set by the bookmaker is overstated in relation to the probability of a given type. It happens quite often and punters try to catch such opportunities to gain an advantage over the bookmaker.
How to Gain an Advantage Over the Bookmaker
To calculate the value of a bet, we need bookmaker odds multiplied by the objective probability of a given event. The key to success is when the value of the bet exceeds 1. While checking the bookmaker's odds of a given bet takes a moment, the correct estimation of the probability of a given event is not that easy. There are many methods for this, but not all are equally effective and it is certainly good to use more than one method. So you can analyze tables with statistics – for example in football matches, checking the number of scored goals, number of wins, the results of individual players, etc.
The analysis should also take into account the composition that will occur, where the match will take place, information about the form of the entire team and individual players, and even the weather forecast. However, all this takes a lot of time, so it is also worth supporting ready-made solutions offered by websites comparing the odds of different bookmakers. In this way, you can quickly spot the bookmaker's error, e.g. in relation to other offered rates.
Highly Rated Bookmakers
No matter how many methods of estimating probability we use and how much time we spend on it, we will never be able to determine it very precisely. Sport is unpredictable and sometimes completely incomprehensible factors determine the final result of a sporting event. Therefore, a certain probability is always only approximate, and thus computing a valuebet also gives only approximate results.
In order to find value bets effectively, we should have accounts with many bookmakers. Thanks to this, we will provide ourselves with much more opportunities to find a valuable bet and place it quickly. The safest way, without risking your own money, is to write down each bet that we evaluate as a valuebet and then check the result. After verifying their effectiveness, we will see clearly how good our current ability to find value bets is. It is also necessary to monitor the bookmakers' offers and catch the bigger differences. Sometimes it happens that all analyzed bookmakers offer a rate for a given event oscillating e.g. around 2.0, but a certain bookmaker breaks out with a significantly higher rate, e.g. 2.4. In this situation, it is almost certain that we have found a valuebet.
You may also wonder if valuebet happens more often with low or high odds bets. Naturally, it is the high odds that are conducive to bookmakers' mistakes and this is where they are the easiest to find.